BrianLaverty's Blog

Are allowed sportsbooks allowed to not release information? (Problem with YouWager)

7/17/2011 7:20:01 PM by BrianLaverty
I am trying to get my hand history for all play on the casino. I am down bigtime at the casino and would like to analyze my logs.

This is there reply:

Poker/Casino-Max : If you do not have further questions
155429 : I do.
155429 : I want my hand history... all of it.
Poker/Casino-Max : ok continue with your next question please
Poker/Casino-Max : No sir, we do not provide full hand histories
Poker/Casino-Max : It is not an option
155429 : I was told that the casino manager can.
Poker/Casino-Max : I can not
155429 : what is...

BrianL's Conference Tournament Picks... Week 1

3/1/2011 11:10:33 PM by BrianLaverty
I'm gonna do one thread for all the conference tournament picks... no point in doing one everyday.... The first week will be from today thru Sunday... I'll make a seperate one for next week.

All bets will be between 1 and 3 units...


First play:

[B][SIZE="6"]- Gardner Webb +11 vs Coastal Carolina (2 Units- Medium Play[/SIZE])
[/B]
I've seen alot of people on it, but it doesn't worry me one bit... Coastal Carolina is in a very bad spot coming into the tourney and at this point, I'd be making UNC Asheville the favorite to win it.

Coastal Carolina is a complete mess right...

A Response To This is the Email I got from the great so to speak Heritage Sports

2/9/2011 2:56:11 AM by BrianLaverty
[B]" Was looking for something like, they always offer money lines, whether the game is -2 or -12."[/B]

They offer moneylines about to -1000... so yes, when a team is favored by 12 there will be a moneyline.

[B]"They offer halftime lines on all games they offer a game line."
[/B]
I've never seen them not put up a halftime line for a CBB game that they had lined for the full game.... Only exceptions would be obvious ones like rare lines on the America East....
[B]
"They have low juice, like instead of -110 they're -105. "
[/B]
They offer -107 or -108 on all...

BrianLaverty's Soccer Thread

7/12/2010 2:03:43 AM by BrianLaverty
Hey guys

I've gotten big into soccer betting over the last few years and have actually been quite successful with it. I told myself that after the World Cup, I would make a serious focus on posting my picks heres.... Ill bet on any league, any team, any total that I see a n edge for.

My picks will range from 1 unit to 3... 1 being average, 2 being above average and 3 being RARE


Gonna start tonight... and i'll keep a running tab and make a post each day.

For tonight...


[SIZE=4][B]Dallas/Seattle OVER 2.5 +103...[/SIZE][/B]

Red Sox/Royals goes wayyyyy under 9,5

4/9/2010 11:29:12 PM by BrianLaverty

Red Sox/Royals UNDER 9.5 (10 Units)  (Play of the Week)

I've been waiting since December when the Sox announced that they would be playing for defense and didn't sign Bay, for this situation... Red Sox playing on the road... Last year, while I don't know the exact numbers, I know that they had alot of trouble hitting on the road.  They made young pitchers look like Cy Young and were just plain horrible to watch at times.   On top of this, its a great combination of the Royals troubles versus Tim Wakefield, and one of the least known under umpires that there is in the majors..... Its not a guarentee but i love the chances that this games does not hit double digits in runs....

First off, we'll get the Royals out of the way.... They are going to have big trouble scoring all year.   In their first 3 games, they scored a total of 10 runs on just 27 hits... they don't have any power and they are gonna be lacking when it comes to clutch hitting.   They didn't just not hit, but they left a total of 14 men on with runners in scoring position in the 3 games versus Detroit.  They are seeing less then 4 pitches per plate appaerance and they just aren;t doing much right.   On top of all of this, they face Tim Wakefield who has been a nemesis for many of the Royals hitters.   Looking at their lineup, the first 4 batters are a combined 5 for 26 against Wakefield lifetime... Wakefield can drive impatient batters crazy and thats exactly what hes facing tonight.   The knuckle also typically moves well in April and the Royals are gonna struggle to get their season high (4) in runs tonight.

As for the Red Sox, their offense looked great against the Yankees... 2 of the 3 games went over and 6 of the 9 players in the starting lineup have a .300 average or better thru 3 games.... They have ALWAYS been a great team hitting at home, and that was expected..  On the road, however, has been my biggest worry about the offense over the season and I expect them to have the most trouble this year.  If you look at the home and road splits, look at the  some of the road averages last year

Pedroia .273 (compared to .318 at home)
Youkilis .291 (compared to .321 at home)
Ortiz .213 (compared to .263 at home)
Drew .262 (compared to .293 at home)
Cameron .252

The other 4 players had better road averages then home, but Martinez is the only returning player with a better average... Ellsbury was the same average at home and away.

The other biggest problem the Sox had was going against pitchers who most of the team hasnt faced before... We have a classic example in Davies tonight... Out of the starting lineup, only 5 players have even faced him before, and theres only one (Martinez) who has had more then 8 plate apperances.   While I don';t have the exact numbers, here are some pitchers the Sox faced for most of the teams first time on the road:
- 4 runs 4/12 against Mosley
- 2 runs 4/13 against Braden
- 2 runs 4/19 agains Uehara
- 4 runs 5/15 against Jakubauskas
- 2 runs 5/17 against Vargas
- 2 runs 5/19 against Tallet

and there were many more examples... that was just through the first 2 months.

Finally, behind the plate is Mike Estabrook.  While many probably havent heard of him as he has had limited experience through the years, only 16 out of the last 49 games that he has umpired have gone over.   Only 7 out of the 26 American League games have gone over also... thats just 28%.  

All 3 of these combinations make for hte perfect under.... 9.5 runs was just way too high and I can see it being a 4-1 or 4-2 type of game easily.....

Does 42+ mean 42 and more, or over 42? (Wagering dispute)

2/15/2010 5:09:55 AM by BrianLaverty
You guys decide... I always thought that 42+ would mean 42 or more...


[COLOR=red][B][IMG]http://server.iad.liveperson.net/hcp/chatinfo/chatinfo.gif[/IMG][/B][/COLOR][COLOR=green]Please wait for a site operator to respond.[/COLOR]
[COLOR=red][B][IMG]http://server.iad.liveperson.net/hcp/chatinfo/chatinfo.gif[/IMG][/B][/COLOR][COLOR=green]You are now chatting with 'Ericka'[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Ericka: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=black]Hello. How may I assist you today?[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Brian: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=red]One of my bets is graded wrong[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Ericka: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=black]Can you please confirm your account number and password?[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Brian: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=red]*[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Brian: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=red]*[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Ericka: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=black]what is the ticket number?[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Brian: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=red]45526833-1[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Brian: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=red]2/14/10 8:20pm Props Basketball 3133 A team scores 42+ points in any quarter -145* vs No team scores 42+ points in any quarter [/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Brian: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=red]East scored 42 points in the 3rd quarter[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Ericka: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=black]Just a moment please[/COLOR]
[COLOR=blue][B]Ericka: [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=black]they had to score more than 42 points...[/COLOR]

Indiana +5.5 1H....

2/10/2010 11:05:01 PM by BrianLaverty

Indiana +5.5 1H is the play guys

Tonight, the young Indiana Hoosiers are host to the rival Ohio State Buckeyes.  While this may look like a complete mismatch on paper, Indiana has been surprisingly solid ATS at home this year with a 7-6 record, and 4-1 in the Big Ten.   Ohio State has been very subpar on the road this year, going 3-7 ATS.  But if you take a deeper look into the numbers, it might be closer then most people expect.  Indiana has a knack for hitting the big shots and staying close as a major underdog in the first half.  Some examples are leading at the half against Purdue and Illinois, and staying basket for basket with Kentucky in the first half at home.  Ohio State on the other hand has come out of the gates extremely slow on the road.  They struggled big time without him, but even with Evan Turner, they have struggled to take control of the game until the 2nd half.  They let Iowa stick around for most of the game on the road, even trailing by 4 at the half.  If they struggle tonight like they did in that game, Indiana has an oppurtunity to build a 5-10 point lead with the way they shoot the ball at home.


- Indiana has been within 5.5 points in 4 out of 5 Big Ten home games this year.... The one exception was the lone time they ewre big favorites... .against Iowa.   They led Purdue by 4 at the half, led by 4 against Minnesota at the half, led the Illini by 11 at the half AND led Michigan by 6 at the half.   Yes, they are a young and not very good, but Coach Creen knows how to get them pumped up in the first half for games that they are dogged.

- Ohio State on the other hand has not had a 6 point lead or more on the road in any game of there 5 Big Ten road games.  Trailed Iowa by 5 at the half, trailed by 12 to Purdue, led by one at Minnesota, trailed by 2 at Michigan, and trailed by 9 at Wisconsin.  They seem to be slow starters, even with the return of Evan Turner back in the lineup. 



Now, not only is Indiana better at getting off to the quick start, they also have revenge on their minds.  Indiana got absolutely destroyed against Ohio State in the first meeting of the year... They jumped out to a 38-20 lead at the half and rolled to a 25 point thrashing.   This should be fresh on the minds of Indiana and should make them come out even more motivated then playing a ranked team at home.

My final point is it reminds almost exactly of the situation these two teams were in around this time last year.  In the first meeting last year, Ohio State beat Indiana at OSU by 24, 77-53.  Well, they played a few weeks later at Indiana and Indiana actually lead at the half as 7 point dogs, 39-37.   They covered the first half line easily, ut struggled in the 2nd half and ended up losing by 12.

If the last month is any indication, Indiana will be leading at the half, and Ohio State will dominate the 2nd half, coming close to covering the game's 10.5 points.

Indiana +5.5 1H is the play in the early game....

Providence/Syracuse Total Observation....

2/2/2010 2:22:43 PM by BrianLaverty

This is a rebuttal to people on the Under 169 of PC/Syracuse

 

 

Cuse will only score 80?

And theres no way PC scores 70?

 Wow.. gotta love Cuse fans.


For one thing... I dont think you have any clue how quick PC plays up and down the court (5th in the country in possessions per game).  Against a team like Cuse who will run with them, theres a chance of 80 possessions per team.  Not only that, but PC's defense is absolutely horrible.     In 9 Big East games, they've given up 90+ 5 times.  The only teams that didn't are teams that struggled offensively and are at the bottom of the standings:  St. Johns, Depaul, UConn and Rutgers.  Even Rutgers managed 81 against them.   But you really think Syracuse is gonna just score 80? 

As for PC not breaking 70... very unlikely to happen.   They've scored under 70 just ONCE in 21 games. 

"Cuse will limit PC under 70 without a doubt"  

I know you guys think your team is the best team ever as you do every year, but PC has the 26th best offense efficiency in the country.      They aren't just some pushover on offense.

Oh ya, not to mention, PC is 10th in the country in offensive rebounding %, while Syracuse is 225th in defensive rebounding %.  You don't think PC is gonna be able to dominate the boards?   Another strength of Syracuse's defense is a strength of PC's offense.   Syracuse is 42nd in forcing TOs in the country... PC is the 13th best in holding on to the ball.  

167 is a ton of points... but I'd actually lean to the over.

I see a score of 95-80 Syracuse.

 

This is a completely different type of ball that they play under Keno.  No PC team was in the top 30 before in tempo ever... but under Keno, last year they were 10th.. and this year they are playing almost 3 possessions per game faster and they are in 5th in the country.

Last years game hit 194 points and there were a total of 82 possessions.  If this game has 82 possessions, there is no way it doesn't go over.  

Another thing that everyone should consider is that there is no quit with Keno.  He fouls down the stretch as long as they are within 20 points.   If they are down 12-15 with 4 minutes left, Keno will start fouling.

Some examples of this:

- @ ND earlier in the season... the score was 75-65 with 4:00 left.  Keno decided to put on the full court press and foul if they didn't get the steal.  In the last 4 minutes, there was a total of 31 points and the final ended up 93-78 (and thats with no fouling in the last 40 seconds).

- @ Cincy on Saturday night... down 75-65 with 4 minutes left.... Keno decides to start pressing and fouling just like the ND game...  In the last 4 minutes, there were 40 POINTS and the final was 92-88...


So this is an incredibly risky play unless you think they are gonna be down by 20+

 

BetPhoenix doesnt credit my account for a blackjack and then say that I'm cheating...

1/21/2010 7:25:01 PM by BrianLaverty
I've been one of the biggest supporters of this book for the last 6 months but there have some subtle moves that have been making me feel very uncomfortable the last couple of weeks... and then this happens Sunday night..

Im playing blackjack and get an AJ.... nice... so then next hand I get blackjack again, this time with AQ, but my account never gets credited and they take the risked money out of my account.

[IMG]http://i45.tinypic.com/vh5dfb.png[/IMG]

So I'm on the phone and live chat with them for a total of about 3 hours on Tuesday trying to get this straightened out. ...

Great news! Uigea regulations have been delayed 6 months

11/27/2009 10:19:58 PM by BrianLaverty
Huge news for us online gamblers and poker players in the US....

[CENTER][CENTER][B]Fed, Treasury Accept PPA Request to Delay UIGEA[/B][/CENTER]
[/CENTER]

WASHINGTON, DC. (November 27, 2009) ?The Poker Players Alliance (PPA), the leading poker grassroots advocacy group with more than one million members nationwide, today applauded the six month delay of the implementation of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) regulations. The Federal Reserve and Department of Treasury today extended the deadline for UIGEA enforcement until June 1, 2010, which is the result of a [URL="http://www.scribd.com/doc/20557592/DC-Letter-to-Fed-and-Treasury-Regarding-Petition-for-UIGEA-Rulemaking"]petition [/URL]filed by the PPA, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association and the American...
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